Jottings of note:
In this special edition of RAIN Notes, we dive into Nieman Lab’s annual prediction survey.
Nieman Lab has produced a Predictions for Journalism, 2025 feature. “Each year, we ask some of the smartest people in journalism and media what they think is coming in the next 12 months.” We count 72 contributors across many media types, and their contributions go way beyond single-sentence offerings to thoughtful essays. Recognized thought leaders in the RAIN realm include Eric Nuzum (Magnificent Noise), Kerri Hoffman (PRX), and Joni Deutsch (The Podglomerate). Nieman’s project is a weekend of reading for anyone interested in journalism across all media.
Alex Sujong Laughlin
An interesting (pessimistic) prediction of the podcast industry is in the Nieman Lab roundup. It’s a face-reality article by audio producer Alex Sujong Laughlin, co-owner of Defector Media, whose resume includes stints atCNN, National Journal, The Washington Post, BuzzFeed, and teaching gigs at CUNY and NYU. “The podcast middle class will continue to shrink,” her piece is titled, and it darkly predicts “The Rogans and Coopers of the world will float in their opulent pools while the rest of us fight for greedy sips of what’s left.” Consolidation of the audio industry is a driver of this outlook, and Laughlin forecasts winnowing investment in ambitious shows with moderate budgets, while big investments will continue to seek shows with the largest audiences — stoking those fires, as she puts it. Laughlin does introduce the idea that the big shows will induce trickle-down investments to the podcast middle class … while also expressing doubt. More likely: “The Rogans and Coopers of the world will float in their opulent pools while the rest of us fight for greedy sips of what’s left.” READ
Eric Nuzum
Magnificent Noise co-founder and frequent RAIN speaker Eric Nuzum is tenaciously bullish comparing the enduring appeal of podcating to once-doomed, still-thriving indie bookstores “It isn’t about the transaction,” he observes. “Independent bookstores are about relationships and community.” For him, the comparison holds for journalism as a whole (which is Nieman’s main subject), as well as local news, and podcasting. Measurement and user insights are great, in this view, but they have blinded professionals to the emotional connectivity of podcasts, and the relationship building which is woven into audio. READ
Kerri Hoffman
It’s daunting, says PRX President/CEO Kerri Hoffman, and she’s talking about maintaining a sustainable business model. In last year’s Niemann prediction exercise, Hoffman wrote: “It’s critical to acknowledge that local public radio stations bear considerable risk in the current podcast environment.” Now, her urgency is coupled with an opportunistic view. She describes a fractured media ecosystem at important public news inflections, e.g. the recent election night — projections hidden behind paywalls and limited access to trustworthy independent coverage. “In contrast, public media stands apart, Hoffman advocates, observing that the original principles of the Public Broadcasting Act of 1967 are cogent and relevant today. Nonetheless: “Our industry faces extraordinary challenges.” Podcasting, which has its roots in public radio, can grow even deeper,but requires investment: “Investment in technological evolution and digital infrastructure, yes, but also investment in each other—our people, our creativity, and our shared mission.” READ
Joni Deutsch
“If we learned anything in the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election, it’s that podcasting has evolved from a supplementary media channel into a primary battleground for political discourse and voter engagement.” Deutsch centers her argument around the recent presidential election, in which podcasting arguably emerged as a crucial candidate venue for the first time. It’s a transformation that will continue, and accelerate, she says, as podcast moves from supplementary status in the media ecosystem into “a primary battleground for political discourse and voter engagement.” Simultaneously, podcasting can help media outlets regain trust and reinforce transparency with audiences. She acknowledges layoffs and disruptions, and asserts that new forms of investment will be found. “The ‘podcast election’ may be over, but the real podcast work — to make real, meaningful, and engaging change — is just beginning.” READ
December 12, 2024
