Are We Optimizing the Wrong Thing?
In his final “Bad on Mic” newsletter, Steve Raizes asked if we’ve been thinking about podcasting all wrong. Specifically, by chasing downloads when we should have been focused on something far more meaningful—whether anyone stayed or returned.
For a long time, downloads have been the scoreboard. Bigger meant better – ok, yes, bigger is better – but that framing is increasingly disconnected from how media is consumed and valued, and from the way the podcast business is changing.
The Download Illusion
A download is not a listen. A download is a metric of distribution, not consumption. We’ve been on this one for a while including working with Bumper Media recently to gather feedback from podcast companies and advertising agencies about the state of podcast metrics.
The big platforms are already moving beyond downloads. Spotify places increasing emphasis on streams and completion rates. YouTube, now the largest gateway to podcasts, focuses on starts and watch time. Apple will continue to track audio downloads and listens, but Apple’s new video push will fundamentally count video streams.
The shift is unmistakable.
Engagement and Retention Over Downloads
Success is not just about reach, but about engaging people and building loyalty. Customer engagement has long been the currency in most businesses.
In financial services, credit card companies don’t celebrate account openings nearly as much as they track usage. A card that is used every day, across categories, is incredibly profitable over time.
Netflix no longer defines success by how many people sign up. It’s obsessed with churn: who leaves, when they leave, and why. The mission is to keep people watching and subscribing.
Airlines don’t optimize for the occasional traveler. They built multi-billion dollar ecosystems around frequent flyers. The most profitable division in most airlines is the business of loyalty – credit cards and frequently flyer programs.
Marriott doesn’t celebrate how many people walked through the door. They care about who keeps coming back.
Starbucks is not built on one-time visits, but on frequency.
You get the point.
Radio Knew This All Along
My background includes years in the radio business. Radio has always measured how many people tune in (cume), but the far more important metrics are how often they listen (frequency), and how long they stay (time spent listening). Reach, frequency and time spent listening. The measurement trifecta.
The Economics of True Fans
Most shows will never build giant audiences, but many have loyal fans that show up time and time again. Former Wired Magazine publisher Kevin Kelly’s concept of “1,000 True Fans” provides a useful lens for this shift.
1,000 people in a theater in Detroit.
You don’t need massive scale to build something valuable. You need a core audience that is deeply connected. People who listen or watch a show regularly, trust the host, and are willing to act, whether that means sharing, subscribing, or buying.
1,000 people who care deeply are more valuable than 50,000 who barely notice.
Sam Sethi of Podcast News Weekly Review fame named his podcast platform True Fans honoring Kelly’s thesis that podcasters can build community and monetize fandom.
For niche podcasts, this isn’t theory. It’s reality.
A podcast for HVAC professionals doesn’t need an audience of millions. A show about fountain pens doesn’t need to trend. What they need is a tight, consistent audience that finds genuine value—and comes back.
A smaller audience that stays is more valuable than a larger audience that drifts.
The Value is in Attention
In a fragmented media world, attention is fleeting. Options are endless. Switching costs are zero. In this environment, reach (downloads) is not enough.
Podcasting has spent years celebrating the “foot traffic” of downloads and it isn’t a trustworthy metric. As many as 50% of downloads do not result in a listen/watch.
Here’s a better way to think about the shift:
Reach is about exposure. How many came
- Discovery
- Sampling
- First touch
Engagement is about behavior. How many stayed
- Habit
- Loyalty
- Return listening or viewing
- Sharing
Reach may open the door. Engagement is what builds the relationship. And in podcasting, relationships are the business.
It’s time to move the conversation—and the metrics—forward. Away from vanity downloads, which are often inflated or misleading, and toward what actually signals value: real people, actual plays across audio and video, and time spent. That’s how every other major media business measures success. Podcasting should do the same.